The Struggle Over Syria
2019 01 11
The US declared today that it started withdrawing the troops in Syria today. The withdrawal is taking place under confusing political, regional, and international confusion. It seems the US has not really coordinated with any of the parties, whether allies or foes. The Turks are massing troops and making noises. The Russians have been working hard to bridge the gap between the Kurds and Damascus. There is a chance they might reach agreement to fend off a power vacuum in the East of the Euphrates that Turkey will seek to fill.
It seems to me that Trump America is playing a very dangerous game. On the one hand it declares protection of the Kurds as it withdraws. That position inflames the Turks and Damascus. It encourages the Kurds to lower their willingness to negotiate with Russia. It encourages ISIS to resume its activities and hence forcing the Syrian Army to deploy forces in the East and away of Idlib.
The US turns around and escalates its diplomatic posture through both the visits of Pompeo to the allied Arab countries and Bolton to Israel and Turkey. Further, it seems that US did not inform Russia of its plans or intentions. Hence, the Russians continue to be suspicious of the US move.
One theory that is circulating states that the Syria withdrawal is repositioning to attack Iran. I do not think there is evidence that this is the case. However, the US battle cry is to call for an international conference in Poland with Arab allies, Israel, and some European countries to declare a strategy against Iran.
I believe the Pompeo and Bolton maneuvers are meant to assure the Israelis and the Arab allies more than do anything to the balance of forces on the ground which has been shifting against the US.
Israel has already resumed it attempts to bomb in the vicinity of Damascus Airport after failing to obtain a US recognition of the Golan.
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