Saturday, August 22, 2009

We, the undersigned, are concerned Iraqis, living in Iraq and outside Iraq, men and women, professionals and intellectuals, who recognize that a semblance of progress towards peace and stability has been made in our beloved Iraq, the cradle of human civilization. However, the path towards realizing a sustainable state of stability, justice, peace, and democracy remains long and tortuous, and the challenges are immense. We support the unconditional withdrawal of all foreign troops and presence from Iraq. We strongly believe that Iraq must have full sovereignty as a unified democratic non--sectarian state with equal rights and justice to all of its citizens, irrespective of race, creed, religion, color, ethnic origin, beliefs, gender, or tribal affiliation and without the presence of any foreign military forces.

Concerns Based on Current Facts on the Ground

In the past few months, there has been some progress on a number of fronts, including security and local provincial elections. However, the political process in Iraq is still blocked by disagreements and opposing views that form key obstacles in achieving any progress towards a safer, more stable, and democratic Iraq. Therefore, we are concerned that the assessments of the progress made by the media, the Iraqi government and the US administration officials have been substantially overstated and that the facts on the ground in Iraq remain alarming and potentially devastating. Here are few of these facts:

The forces of divisiveness, sectarianism, and fragmentation remain strong and active throughout Iraq. These forces are embedded into the system of governance established after occupation.

The structure of most of the institutions of the Iraqi government, including the civil service, security, army and police forces, remains largely sectarian. These institutions are exercising repressive power against groups of different political or sectarian persuasion;

Sectarian and ethnic groups retain active and visible militias throughout Iraq, further weakening the roles of the Iraqi government and civic society;

The existence of these militias is forcing and encouraging other groups to explore the formation of their own private militias, and, hence, accelerating the trend towards more divisiveness, renewed insurgency and prospects of wider warfare.

The increasing tension between the Central Government and Kurdistan Regional Government over the so–called "disputed area", the ownership and management of oil resources, and the sharing of financial revenues is threatening, at any moment, the breakout of Arab-Kurdish violence.

The process of political reconciliation on a non-sectarian basis is stalled. It is a fact that several key disputed issues, such as the oil revenues, the city of Kirkuk, and the militias, remain unresolved, although negotiations have been ongoing since 2003 to resolve them. It is also a fact that the flawed and outdated Iraqi constitution remains in effect, with no credible hope of reform. Despite promises of reform and amendment, the constitution has not been modified, since it was passed through a referendum in October 2005.

Transparency International has classified Iraq, for the past three years, as one of the most corrupt states in the world. Tens of billions of US dollars have been spent to reconstruct the infrastructure, schools and health systems, since 2003. Nevertheless, the levels of these services remain lower than pre-2003 levels and many more billions have disappeared and not been accounted for.
The environment of Iraq is in a state of disaster. Depleted Uranium, used by US forces, pollutes most of the country with radiation with devastating consequences to public health.

The UN reports: "The economy is unable to provide enough work for 28% of the labor force … Unemployment is concentrated and rising among younger men … Only 17% of Iraqi women participate in the labour force."

We note with horror that since the illegal invasion of Iraq six years ago, today we have the following demographic and social facts:

Estimates put the number of civilian Iraqis who perished by violence anywhere between DOD's estimate of 100,000 and the Lancet field report of roughly 1.5 million.

"UNHCR estimates more than 4.7 million Iraqis have left their homes, many in dire need of humanitarian care. Of these, more than 2.7 million Iraqis are displaced internally, while more than 2 million have fled to neighboring states, particularly Syria and Jordan. Many were displaced prior to 2003, but the largest number has fled since. In 2006, Iraqis became the leading nationality, seeking asylum in Europe."

Iraq's cherished minorities (such as the Mandaneans, Assyrians, Chaldeans and the Yazidis) with their numerous rich cultural diversity and contributions to Iraq's well-being, are now nearly extinct. The process of liquidation of these minorities continues unabated.

The status of Iraqi women, in law and in public practices, has regressed to a level far below the status they had achieved in the fifty years prior to the occupation. "Only 18% of women participate in the labour force, compared to 81% of men. This is a low figure compared to other countries in the region. Women with lower educational levels are more likely to be outside the labour force."

Iraq has more than a million widows. Sources indicate that there are 3 to5 million orphans.

The process of assassination and intimidation of Iraqi intellectuals continues unabated. Thousands of Iraq's outstanding intellectuals, professionals, academics, and scientists have been assassinated and are continuing to be assassinated. Tens of thousands have been forced to flee Iraq and become refugees. Some estimates place the loss of doctors after 2003, due to assassinations and forced emigration, at more than 70%.

These facts are but a short list of the highlights of the extensive destruction caused, directly or indirectly, by six years of occupation, sectarian policies, unchecked rampage of armed criminal gangs, and rampant corruption. We recognize that many of these ills started before the 2003 invasion because of the dictatorship and the inhuman sanctions imposed on Iraq. However, these ills reached genocidal proportions because of the illegal invasion, the brutal occupation, sectarianism, poor constitution, and the lack of effective Iraqi leadership.

Assessment Based on the Current Concerns

The concerns above - the fundamental rift in Kurdish-Arab relations, the on-going sectarian policies, and other more disturbing facts - clearly lead us to believe that an irresponsible withdrawal of foreign forces will push Iraq toward greater conflict and more dire conditions. The escalation of such conflict will very likely engulf not only Iraq but also the whole Middle East in local warfare, instability, and destruction, endangering, in the process, far more than just Iraq security and stability.

On the other hand, any plan to keep US and foreign forces in Iraq beyond December 2011 will definitely act as a trigger to a broader and more entrenched resistance to this extended foreign occupation. Such a development will not only engulf Iraq in more violence and instability, it will lead to the resurgence of a more vicious insurgency and accelerate instability and war in the whole Middle East region.

Our assessment is that if the US continues with the current sense of "victory is at-hand," and support to the current government "no-matter what", the likely outcome will produce one of two equally undesirable scenarios:

An irresponsible withdrawal leaving chaos and possibly leading to civil war, or

An extension of the occupation beyond December 2011 leading to a resurgence of insurgency and increasing violence.

A 'responsible withdrawal' is a withdrawal plan that returns sovereignty to the Iraqi people, by transitioning its powers to an International Transitional Authority (ITA), and respects their needs, requirements, and human rights, including their right of self-determination. It also supports all efforts at political reconciliation of the war parties that will be undertaken by the ITA.

The future of the World's peace, security, and prosperity depends on the realization, as soon as possible, of a sustainable just Middle East peace. Many factors and players enter the equation of achieving Middle Eastern peace. Among them is the necessary condition that a credible and legitimate democratic government in Baghdad is a party to such peace.

The coming few months building up to the Iraqi parliamentary elections, are critical to producing a more desirable outcome for the Iraqi people, and for peace and justice in the Middle East.

The Desired Future of Iraq

We call on the US, the neighbors of Iraq, and the numerous interested regional and international parties to respect and support the vision of the Iraqi people of their desired future, including:

A unified non-sectarian democratic Iraq: Iraq needs a unified non-sectarian democratic and a strong sovereign national government, bounded by the rule of law and democratic checks and balances. The Iraqi people strongly desire such a government as indicated by the results of the last local elections and by numerous field studies. Federalism as defined in the current Constitution and as implemented has become a euphemism for divisiveness, fragmentation and dissonance. Federalism or other forms of governance in the context of the Iraqi people exercising its free will of self-determination are acceptable provided it leads to peaceful coexistence and the development of the whole country.

Many developed nations are unified. They have a wide diversity of political systems, and they enjoy a well-balanced distribution and sharing of power.
Citizenship: An Iraqi state in which Iraqi citizens, irrespective of gender, creed, color, religion, ethnicity, or belief, are equal in their citizenship and have equal rights before fair, just and enforceable laws must be our goal. Laws must protect and unequivocally guarantee the rights of freedom of speech, assembly, petition of their government, and protection for the rights of all minorities: political, ethnic, gender, or religion. Citizenship, not members of a sect, ethnic group, or a tribe, is the necessary pillar for building a viable democracy;
Political Process: An Iraqi state must ensure a fair, transparent and accountable political process for all Iraqis. It must safeguard all citizens from the tyranny of the rule of militias and armed gangs. All political groups within Iraq must renounce violence to achieve political aims, ethnic goals, and militia rule. Respect for the fundamental rights of speech, assembly, petition to the government, and other basic human and political rights must the cornerstone of new Iraq;
New Constitution: An urgently needed new Constitution, or an evolved one, that represents the will of the Iraqi people-- all of the Iraqi people-- to establish a more balanced non-sectarian, legal framework that emphasizes the principles of equal citizenship, social justice and the protection of the rights of women, the disadvantaged, and minorities;
Minorities: An Iraqi state that upholds the rights of all ethnic and national groups throughout Iraq to live and develop in peace, and to celebrate their own history, language, and culture;
Natural Resources: An Iraqi state in which the ownership of natural resources, including oil and gas, remains centralized and under public jurisdiction and administration, and whose returns will be used equitably to serve the interests of all the Iraqi people in order to build prosperity for all.

Urgent Recommendations to the Iraqi Political Forces

We recommend that the Iraqi Government, Iraqi political parties, and Iraqi forces of resistance accept and act faithfully to realize the following:

Strong National Government: The Iraqi political groups must commit to the building of a strong national government in Baghdad dedicated to the success of a unified democratic Iraq. All these efforts must take place within the confines of the democratic controls of transparency, non-sectarianism, ethnic equality, and open participation by all Iraqi citizens. The building of such a national government, without corruption should start as part of the transitional arrangements and under the auspices of the International Transitional Authority.
Non-Sectarian Professional Government: The institutions of the government - including the civil service, law enforcement, army, security, and diplomatic services - must be built on the principles of service, professionalism, and non-political meddling, and must be devoid of sectarianism;
Political Reconciliation and renunciation of political violence: A more open and participatory national political dialogue and a concomitant electoral process of reform must be urgently developed – one where all parties and individuals are allowed to freely and safely participate in the national debate leading up to the national elections in the next few months. This dialogue should lead to internationally supervised free and open elections -- with the assistance of the UN, Carter center, and other similarly reputable organizations--- and an open process to reform of the Constitution immediately after the newly-elected National Assembly takes office in early 2010. All the political parties participating in this enhanced conciliation process must renounce violence as a means for achieving political goals and must accept that all militias will be dissolved and its members properly integrated in new Iraqi military and security forces.
Social Reconciliation: The Debaathification program, and its current sequel, must end immediately and be replaced with a newly established and independent Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Iraqi jurists augmented with international jurists and advisors of trust and credibility. The Commission should be formed independent of the Iraqi Government, or any of the political parties, within the confines of Iraqi sovereignty, and empowered with subpoena powers. Its purpose would be to allow people to air in public their grievances and confront their abusers on matters pertaining to:
1. All crimes committed against Iraqis and against humanity by any Iraqi or foreign persons, including US citizens, from the current and previous regimes, whether they were officials or independent operators;
2. All corruption and theft of public funds;
3. Acts of genocide, ethnic cleansing, or sectarian cleansing.
Sovereignty: All parties must commit to the end of foreign meddling, intervention, and to the withdrawal of all non-Iraqi bases and forces;
Refugees: The Iraqi Government must assume full responsibility for the well-being and the resettlement of displaced Iraqis and refugees.

Urgent Recommendations to the United States Government

Fatally Flawed Premise Underlying the Current U.S. Policy

The policy premise that the Obama Administration inherited from the Bush Administration and decided to build on it its new approach, fundamentally assume the following:

Victory is at-hand; legitimacy in Baghdad has been established in the form of an Iraqi Constitution, a Parliament that was elected under that Constitution and an Iraqi Government--- the Al-Maliki Government--, which has been commissioned by the Parliament to govern Iraq.
All agreements with that government, including SFA and SOFA, are valid binding agreement between two sovereign powers.
By derivation, political conciliation is a necessity, but only in the context of accepting and evolving this legitimacy framework.

This policy assumption is flawed and invalid for the following reasons:

The invasion and occupation of Iraq was an illegitimate act of international aggression against a sovereign nation and a founding member of the UN and the Arab League.
This illegitimate invasion and occupation of Iraq introduced a sequence of changes, directives, laws, and arrangements that are all illegitimate by international law, doubly so because the invasion, also, was not legitimate. Hence, all these arrangements: Constitution, Parliament, Governance structures, Federalism, etc. are illegitimate arrangements from the perspective of the Iraq people. These are the fruits of the poison tree.
The US, its "coalition of the willing", now defunct, and its Iraqi supporters have imposed an occupation regime that has either exaggerated or introduced disastrous policies with far reaching consequences to the society, the people, the infrastructure, the civil contract, and to its governance structures. These disastrous consequences continue until today, unabated, and continue to impose havoc on Iraq. Elsewhere in this report, we have highlighted some of these disastrous actions and policies.
By virtue of the invasion, occupation, and the reckless disregard for Iraq's history, traditions, laws, the US is incapable of facilitating a lasting political situation in Iraq by virtue of what it has done. There is a persistent mistrust of the US role and policies in Iraq and in the whole region. This mistrust inhibits its ability to negotiate a transition to a democratic solution, inclusive of political and social forces, that is capable of bringing peace, stability, and sustainable development to Iraq.
The policy pursued by the current administration runs contrary to the strategic interests of the United States in seeking peaceful resolution throughout the Middle East (including the peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict). The corner stone of the US strategic interest in establishing negotiated peace in Palestine, in Iraq, and in the whole region must be the return of trust to US image, policy, and role. Another corner stone is the emergence of a stable partner for peace in Baghdad that is a party that can sustaining this peace. The current policy will most likely not lead to such a sustainable stable government.
Supporting non-sectarian political reforms in Iraq will shorten the need for the presence of United States' armed forces in Iraq. The US will save billions of dollars, now directed at sustaining the mission in Iraq.

All alternative scenarios of continuing the occupation or waiting for the current set-up in Baghdad to become strong and entrenched around a platform of sectarian and ethnic divisiveness will invariably lead to resurgence of a more radical resistance and a more rapid destabilization of the region.

For the US to begin to gain any trust in Iraq and the region, it must recognize its culpability in destroying the fabric of Iraqi society – a direct result of its strategic blunder in illegally invading and occupying Iraq. It must faithfully implement the recommendations below to ensure that Iraq achieves a sustainable social, political, and economic progress.

An Urgent Need for a Fundamental Policy Shift

For the sake of security, stability, and national reconstruction in Iraq and the Middle East, and for the sake of US strategic interests, we call on the US government to promulgate and implement the following changes to policy. We call on the US Congress to pass a resolution that will guide the US government in the pursuit of these policies. These policies are:

P1) Military Withdrawal

The US must declare that it will withdraw all its forces by Jan 1, 2012 or earlier. All forces imply all combat forces, all bases, all advisors, all mercenaries and contractors, and all covert presence.

P2) International Transitional Authority

The US could consider transitioning its military presence and political authority to an international transitional authority that assumes, as soon as possible, political and security authority and that prepares the path to a new constitution and new expression of the will of the Iraqi people with involvement and participation of all political parties.

P3) Political Approach

The US political approach to Iraq and towards resolving the crises in Iraq has to be changed from the current Obama Administration policy that is pursuing a modified policy from that left behind by the Bush administration.

We detail these policies in the Section on the political approach, below.

P4) The Rebuilding of Iraq

The US should commit itself to continued and sustained support the efforts of the Iraqi people to rebuild our preferred future.

P1) Military Withdrawal

The US should ensure full and complete withdrawal of all US forces, combat forces or otherwise, all US bases, all foreign forces, all air, land, and naval bases, all advisors, all mercenaries and contractors, including mercenaries and civilian employees of these forces, and all covert presence. This withdrawal should be completed according to a timetable no later than Dec 2011.

This call for a withdrawal aligns with the policy declared by President Obama stated in his Feb 27, 2009 speech with the following additional provisions:

Consider opportunities to accelerate that withdrawal and returning full sovereignty to Iraq as soon as possible. The US should seriously consider withdrawing all its forces by the end of August 2010.
The US should respect the will of the Iraqi people, if a referendum of the Iraqi people demands even an earlier withdrawal
Clearly the intent is to include all military, civilian, and contractor personnel associated with the forces of occupation

The US policy should prohibit any US presence whether in the form of contractors, advisors, military consultants, military bases, or covert operators in all of Iraq --- central government or other local governance. The US Congress and Administration should enact this prohibition into a law to ensure that such strategic follies do not repeat themselves in the future.

P2) International Transitional Authority

Given the lack of credibility and lack of trust toward the US policies in Iraq and in the region, the US could move promptly, as it simultaneously withdraws its military forces and completes its disengagement in Iraq, to turn over transitional powers to an accepted international or regional body, like the UN, that can establish an International Transitional Authority (ITA). The ITA's mandate should include a plan to introduce international forces to fill the vacuum and assume security responsibilities. The mandating power should define the mandate of ITA a formal resolution with limited duration, benchmarks, and regular reporting.

The ITA shall have the following powers and responsibilities:

Assume security responsibility of Iraq and prevent a power vacuum from developing.
Establish a transitional governance to govern Iraq while it continues to prepare the political, security, civic, and facilitate conciliation.
Prepare the country for new elections with the participation of all political parties and for a constituent assembly to draft, or revise, the Iraqi constitution.
Establish a follow-up political process to limited authority governance to prepare for the election of a new parliament that will appoint the new government.
Dissolve and disarm all militias.
Facilitate the formation and implementation of the Truth and Conciliation Commission (see below)
Assume immediate and concerted action to fight corruption and prepare the way that Iraq's natural resources would be invested to build the infrastructure and serve the Iraqi people.
Address vigorously the issues of the Iraqi refuges including their resettlement in Iraq or outside

P3) Political Approach

The US should support the concept that all transitional arrangements should involve all Iraqi forces and political groups and should lead to an open, free expression of the will to exercise the right of self-determination of the Iraqi People, free from the burden of the occupation or any other form of intervention. This should include support of the revision of the Iraqi Constitution, free elections in which all forces will freely participate under international supervision, and the end of sectarian and ethnic divisive policies and corruption.

Support Iraqi real sovereignty: Continue, unequivocally, to support all institution building in Iraq based on a non-sectarian platform similar to the position taken by President Obama concerning rebuilding of the Iraqi Armed Forces and continue to use the influence of the US to entice regional powers to respect Iraqi sovereignty and refrain from intervening into the internal affairs of Iraq.
Open Dialogue: Conduct an open dialogue with all Iraqi nationalist and resistance forces and encourage the International Transitional Authority to do the same in the pursuit of processes and regulations that engages all Iraqi parties in a peaceful democratic process to establish legitimacy and wise governance.
International: Use the influence of the US to engage regional and international powers supporting the sovereignty of Iraq and the will of the Iraqi people, including removing Iraq from UN Charter Chapter 7 obligations.
Truth and Reconciliation (TRC) Commission: Support the formation of and participate with the ITA and the Iraqis in establishing a Truth and Reconciliation (TAR) Commission of Iraqi and international jurists of trust and creditability.

P4) The Rebuilding of Iraq

The US should publicly commit itself to continuing and sustained support of the efforts of the Iraqi people to rebuild the country and end the destruction of the people, ethnic groups, and the environment, including the repair of damage from radioactive materials. Further, the US should commit to support the effort to safeguard the interests of the Iraqi refugees and their right to choose to return to Iraq or find appropriate humane settlement for them, including allowing increasing numbers of Iraqis to emigrate to the U.S., if they so desire.

Respect: Respect the right of the Iraqi people to choose their leaders and their laws, and their national democratic processes. Irrespective of the outcome of an open democratic process, the US should commit to respecting the will of the people, and regimes that are the outcome of such processes. It is critical in this phase of history for Iraq's government to be a sustainable democracy.
Social & Economic Support: Commit to support, financially and politically, the reconstruction of Iraq; over a minimum of ten years period;
Debt: Take a lead role in assisting Iraq in eliminating its current level of debt and establishing an International Bank for the Reconstruction of Iraq that focuses on loaning money for development of infrastructure, health, education, welfare, and other projects to close the social and economic gap across all Iraq.
US Embassy: In this context we recommend that the US transforms its sprawling Embassy in a Baghdad to a University that will be an icon of friendship between the US and Iraqi people for peace, democracy, development, and prosperity.

Urgent Recommendations to Regional and International Interested Parties

We call on the regional and international parties, particularly countries bordering Iraq, to:

Commit to support the international transitional authority and facilitate its work at rebuilding Iraqi political and civic society. These regional powers have to consider lowering their intervention in Iraq for the sake of their own security and allow a peaceful democratic process to emerge in Iraq.
Commit to and facilitate the building of a strong unified national government in Baghdad within a democratic non-sectarian state,

Actively support the efforts of international agencies to sustain and support the relocation of Iraqi refugees,

Respect the will of the Iraqi people, expressed through free elections,

End the unjust debt imposed on Iraq for the past 25 years, and help Iraq to emerge from the mandate of UN Charter Chapter 7

Facilitate and participate in the effort to reconstruct Iraq to the interest of the Iraqi people.

Sponsor's Signatures

We support the substance and the approach of this Position Paper on Iraq and call on Iraqis of good will to support it and consider it in the discourse for a better future of Iraq.

Name	Profession	Address	E-Mail
Future of Iraq Group	See end note about the Group Description	Washington, DC	Future.Iraq.Group@gmail.com
Dr. Sami J. AlBanna	Architect, Advanced Systems	Bethesda, MD	Sami.albanna@gmail.com
Dr. Tareq Ismael	Professor of Political Science	Calgary, Alberta, Canada	tismael@ucalgary.ca
Mr. Naseer Nouri	Aircraft Engineer & Pilot	Washington, DC	naseernouri@gmail.com
Dr. Adil Shamoo	Professor, University of Maryland School of Medicine	Baltimore, MD	ashamoo@umaryland.edu

End Notes

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Position Paper on the Future of Iraq (20090516)

Towards a Unified Peaceful Non-Sectarian Democratic Iraq

May 2009

Introduction

We, the undersigned, are concerned Iraqis, living in Iraq and outside Iraq, men and women, professionals and intellectuals, who recognize that a semblance of progress towards peace and stability has been made in our beloved Iraq, the cradle of human civilization. However, the path towards realizing a sustainable state of stability, justice, peace, and democracy remains long and torturous, and the challenges are immense. We support the unconditional withdrawal of all foreign troops and presence from Iraq, and we support the goal of President Barak Obama to remove all US troops and bases from Iraq by Dec. 2011. We strongly believe that Iraq must have full sovereignty as a unified democratic non--sectarian state with equal rights and justice to all of its citizens, irrespective of creed, ethnic origin, belief, gender, or tribal affiliation and without the presence of any foreign military forces.

Concerns Based on Facts on the Ground

The forces of divisiveness, sectarianism, and fragmentation remain strong and active throughout Iraq. These forces are embedded into the system of governance established after occupation.
The structure of most of the institutions of the Iraqi government, including the civil service, security, army and police forces, remains largely sectarian. These institutions are exercising repressive power against groups of different political or sectarian persuasion;

Sectarian groups retain active and visible militias throughout Iraq, further weakening the roles of the Iraqi government and civic society;

The existence of these militias is forcing and encouraging other groups to explore the formation of their own private militias, and, hence, accelerating the trend towards more divisiveness, renewed insurgency and prospects of wider warfare.

The increasing tension between the Central Government and Kurdistan Regional Government over the so–called "disputed area", the ownership and management of oil resources, and the sharing of financial revenues is threatening, at any moment, the breakout of Arab-Kurdish violence.

The process of political reconciliation on a non-sectarian basis is stalled. It is a fact that several key disputed issues, such as the oil revenues, the city of Kirkuk, and the militias, remain unresolved, although negotiations have been ongoing since 2003 to resolve them. It is also a fact that the flawed and outdated Iraqi constitution remains in effect, with no credible hope of reform. Despite promises of reform and amendment, the constitution has not been modified, since it was passed through a referendum in October 2005.

Transparency International has classified Iraq, for the past three years, as one of the most corrupt states in the world. Tens of billions of US dollars have been spent to reconstruct the infrastructure, schools and health systems, since 2003. Nevertheless, the levels of these services remain lower than pre-2003 levels and many more billions have disappeared and not been accounted for.
The environment of Iraq is in a state of disaster. Depleted Uranium, used by US forces, pollutes most of the country with radiation with devastating consequences to public health.

The UN reports: "The economy is unable to provide enough work for 28% of the labor force … Unemployment is concentrated and rising among younger men … Only 17% of Iraqi women participate in the labour force." (SEE: UN OCHA (Jan. 2009). Iraq Labour Force Analysis 2003-2008.)

We note with horror that since the illegal invasion of Iraq six years ago, today we have the following demographic and social facts:

Estimates put the number of civilian Iraqis who perished by violence anywhere between DOD's estimate of 100,000 and the Lancet field report of roughly 1.5 million.

"UNHCR estimates more than 4.7 million Iraqis have left their homes, many in dire need of humanitarian care. Of these, more than 2.7 million Iraqis are displaced internally, while more than 2 million have fled to neighboring states, particularly Syria and Jordan. Many were displaced prior to 2003, but the largest number has fled since. In 2006, Iraqis became the leading nationality-seeking asylum in Europe."

Iraq's cherished minorities (such as the Mandaneans, Assyrians, Chaldeans and the Yazidis) with their numerous rich cultural diversity and contributions to Iraq's well-being, are now nearly extinct. The process of liquidation of these minorities continues unabated. (SEE: Lamani (Jan. 2009). Minorities in Iraq: The Other Victims. CIGI Report.)

The status of Iraqi women, in law and in public practices, has regressed to a level far below the status they had achieved in the fifty years prior to the occupation.

Iraq has more than a million widows and more than 3 million, and some source quote 5 million, orphans;

The process of assassination and intimidation of Iraqi intellectuals continues unabated. Thousands of Iraq's outstanding intellectuals, professionals, academics, and scientists have been assassinated and are continuing to be assassinated. Tens of thousands have been forced to flee Iraq and become refuges. Some estimates place the loss of doctors after 2003, due to assassinations and forced emigration, at more than 70%.

Assessment Based on the Concerns

On the other hand, any plan to keep US and foreign forces in Iraq beyond December 2011 will definitely act as a trigger to a broader and more entrenched resistance to this extended foreign occupation. Such a development will not only engulf Iraq in more violence and instability, it will lead to the resurgence of a more viscous insurgency and accelerate instability and war in the whole Middle East region.

An irresponsible withdrawal leaving chaos and possibly leading to civil war, or

An extension of the occupation beyond December 2011 leading to a resurgence of insurgency and increasing violence.

A 'responsible withdrawal' is a withdrawal plan that returns sovereignty to the Iraqi people and respects their needs, requirements, and human rights,, including their right of self-determination. It also supports all efforts at political reconciliation. Such plans will have to include a handing over of power to a credible democratically elected Iraqi government.

The coming nine months, building up to the Iraqi parliamentary elections, are critical to producing a more desirable outcome for the Iraqi people, and for peace and justice in the Middle East.

The Desired Future of Iraq

We call on the US, the neighbors of Iraq, the Arab countries, the other countries of the Middle East, and the numerous interested international parties to respect and support the vision of the Iraqi people of their desired future, including:

1. A unified non-sectarian democratic Iraq with a strong sovereign national government, bounded by the rule of law and democratic checks and balances – a government strongly desired by Iraqis as the last elections indicate and as evidenced by numerous field studies. Federalism as defined in the current Constitution and implemented has become a euphemism for divisiveness, fragmentation and dissonance. Federalism or other forms of governance in the context of the Iraqi people exercising its free will of self-determination are acceptable provided it leads to peaceful coexistence and the development of the whole country. Many developed nations are 'unified' and enjoy a well-balanced distribution and sharing of power.

2. New Constitution: An urgently needed new Constitution, or an evolved one, that represents the will of the Iraqi people-- all of the Iraqi people-- to establish a more balanced non-sectarian, legal framework that emphasizes the principles of equal citizenship, social justice and the protection of the rights of women, disadvantaged, and minorities;

3. Citizenship: An Iraqi state in which Iraqi citizens, irrespective of gender, creed, ethnicity, or belief, are equal in their citizenship and have equal rights before fair, just and enforceable laws. Protection of the laws must unequivocally guarantee the rights of freedom of speech, assembly, petition of their government, and protection for the rights of all minorities, political, ethnic, gender, or religion. Citizenship, not members of a sect, ethnic group, or a tribe, is the necessary pillar for building a viable democracy;

4. Minorities: An Iraqi state that upholds the rights of all ethnic and national groups throughout Iraq to live and develop in peace, and to celebrate their own history, language, and culture;

5. Political Process: An Iraqi state that ensures a fair, transparent and accountable political process for all Iraqis and safeguards all citizens from the tyranny of the rule of militias and armed gangs;

6. Natural Resources: An Iraqi state in which the ownership of natural resources, including oil and gas, remains centralized and under public jurisdiction and administration, and whose returns will be used equitably to serve the interests of all the Iraqi people in order to build prosperity for all.

Recommendations

To the Iraqi Political Forces

We recommend that the Iraqi Government, Iraqi political parties, and Iraqi forces of resistance accept and act faithfully to realize the following:

1. Strong National Government: The Iraqi political groups must commit to the building of a strong national government in Baghdad dedicated to the success of a unified democratic Iraq. All these efforts must take place within the confines of the democratic controls of transparency, non-sectarianism, ethnic equality, and open participation by all Iraqi citizens;

2. Non-Sectarian Professional Government: The institutions of the government - including the civil service, law enforcement, army, security, and diplomatic services - must be built on the principles of service, professionalism, and non-political meddling, and must be devoid of sectarianism;

3. Political Reconciliation: A more open and participatory national political dialogue and a concomitant electoral process of reform must be urgently developed – one where all parties and individuals are allowed to freely and safely participate in the national debate leading up to the national elections in December 2009. This dialogue should lead to internationally supervised free and open elections -- with the assistance of the UN, Carter center, and other similarly reputable organizations--- and an open process to reform of the Constitution immediately after the newly-elected National Assembly takes office in early 2010;

4. Social Reconciliation: The Debaathification program, and its current sequel, must end immediately and be replaced with a newly established and independent Truth, Accountability and Reconciliation (TAR) Commission of international jurists of trust and creditability. The Commission should be formed independent of the Iraqi Government or any of the political parties, but within the confines of Iraqi sovereignty. Its purpose would be to allow people to air in public their grievances and confront their abusers on matters pertaining to

All crimes committed against Iraqis and against humanity by any Iraqi or foreign persons, including US citizens, from the current and previous regimes, whether they were officials or independent operators;

All corruption and theft of public funds;

Acts of genocide, ethnic cleansing, or sectarian cleansing.

5. Sovereignty: All parties must commit to the end of foreign meddling, intervention, and to the withdrawal of all non-Iraqi bases and forces;

6. Refugees: The Iraqi Government must assume full responsibility for the well-being and the resettlement of displaced Iraqis and refugees.

To the United States

It is in the United States' interest to seek peace throughout the Middle East (including the peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict) and to see a stable partner for peace emerging in Baghdad. Supporting non-sectarian political reforms in Iraq will shorten the need for the presence of United States' armed forces in Iraq. Billions of dollars, now directed at sustaining the mission in Iraq, will be saved and redirected towards the United States' domestic needs.

The United States must recognize its culpability in destroying the fabric of Iraqi society – a result of its strategic blunder in illegally invading and occupying Iraq. It must faithfully implement the recommendations below to ensure that Iraq achieves social, political, and economic progress. In short, the US should adhere faithfully to the of all foreign forces and conduct a responsible withdrawal that leads to a non-sectarian political conciliation by faithfully implementing the recommendations below:

1. Withdrawal: Commit to the withdrawal of all forces and all bases, as President Obama stated in his Feb 27, 2009 speech. Consider opportunities to accelerate that withdrawal and returning full sovereignty to Iraq as soon as possible.

2. Support Iraqi Real Sovereignty: Continue, unequivocally, to support all institution building in Iraq based on a non-sectarian platform similar to the position taken by President Obama concerning rebuilding of the Iraqi Armed Forces.

3. Respect: Respect the right of the Iraqi people to choose their leaders and their laws, irrespective of the outcome. No "Hamas treatment";

4. Social & Economic Support: Commit to support, financially and politically, the reconstruction of Iraq; over a minimum of ten years period;

5. Open Dialogue: Conduct an open dialogue with all Iraqi nationalist and resistance forces;

6. International: Use the influence of the US to engage regional and international powers supporting the sovereignty of Iraq and will of the Iraqi people;

7. Debt: Take a lead role in assisting Iraq in eliminating its current level of debt and establishing an International Bank for the Reconstruction of Iraq that focuses on loaning money for development of infrastructure, health, education, welfare, and other projects to close the social and economic gap across all Iraq.

8. Truth and Reconciliation (TRC) Commission: Support the formation of and participate with Iraqis in establishing a Truth and Reconciliation (TAR) Commission of international jurists of trust and creditability.

Regional and International Interested Parties

We call on the regional and international parties, particularly countries bordering Iraq, to:

Commit to and facilitate the building of a strong unified national government in Baghdad within a democratic non-sectarian state,

Actively support the efforts of international agencies to sustain and support the relocation of Iraqi refugees,

Respect the will of the Iraqi people, expressed through free elections,

End the unjust debt imposed on Iraq for the past 25 years,

Facilitate and participate in the effort to reconstruct Iraq to the interest of the Iraqi people.

Sponsor's Signatures

We support the substance and the approach of this Position Paper on Iraq and call on Iraqis of good will to support it and consider it in the discourse for a better future of Iraq.

Name	Profession	Address	E-Mail	Comments
Future of Iraq Discussion Group	See end note about the Group Description	Washington, DC
Dr. Sami J. AlBanna	Architect, Advanced Systems	Bethesda, MD	Sami.albanna@gmail.com
Dr. Tareq Ismael	Professor of Political Science	Calgary, Alberta, Canada	tismael@ucalgary.ca
Mr. Omar Fekeiki	Journalist	Washington, DC	omarfekeiki@yahoo.com
Mr. Naseer Nouri	Aircraft Engineer & Pilot	Washington, DC	naseernouri@gmail.com

This is a short list of sponsors. We are publishing the document for distribution while awaiting other sponsors approvals to use their names. We will republish the Paper, without change to content, once we receive the authorization of these colleagues.

End Notes

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Position Paper on the Future of Iraq (New Version)

Through the efforts of numerous members of the Future of Iraq Discussion Group and the extensive international network of progressive Iraqis with their valuable suggestions and ideas, we have a new improved version of the 'Position Paper' on Iraq (copy attached). We hope that after this round of inputs and improvements we will be able to also establish this as a petition for people to sign.

Yesterday, we had our first round of briefing in the Congress with staffers from two important sub-committees. We provided them with the 'Position Paper' and discussed ways to realize the objective of this position. We are more encouraged that there is a growing body of opinion in Congress that supports:

The total withdrawal of all forces of occupation;
An end of the support of the US Government to sectarianism and current policies that are bringing disaster to Iraq, its economy, its minorities, and its well-being;
Open dialogue with the more than the "Green Zone" parties to include dialogue with the Iraqi Resistance, except the AlQa'da;
The US involvements in humanitarian and developmental roles lead by Iraqis.

Please for the sake of the well-being of the Iraqi people continue this discourse, and we will continue to refine the 'Position Paper' to reflect more accurately the position of the anti-occupation and anti-sectarianism forces, for:

One unified democratic Iraq whose foundational laws are based on the principle of "Citizenship" and not membership in a {sects, tribes, ethnicity group, Sahwa groups, militia, and/or private army … etc.}
The unconditional and the complete removal of all foreign troops and bases; and the ending of all foreign meddling.
We are calling on the US and other powers to have open dialogue with Iraq National Resistance, excluding Al-Qaida, and to facilitate a new election process that is not sectarian, all-inclusive with safety and security to all to speak their minds and seek the mandate of the Iraqi people. The dialogue should focus on reformation of the election process that will lead to national elections whose immediate purposes is the recasting of the Iraqi Constitution to reflect the Iraqi national consensus. In addition, we stress that whomever wins from that open democratic and participatory process will have to be respected and NO "Hamas Treatment".
A strong unified central government bounded by democratic checks and balances and an open society that protects and defends the fundamental human, civil, and political rights of all its citizens, and all its minorities and ethnic formations without prejudice.
Governmental Institutions, including army and security forces, that is based on Professional qualified Iraqi citizens, for the service of the people of Iraq, with no sectarianism, cronyism, political parties, or any of the numerous forms of corrupt practices that prevail today.
We are calling for an Independent Truth, Accountability, Justice (TAJ) Commission of independent jurists to review the crimes of individuals associated with the Saddam Regime, the Occupation Regime, including the current regime. These crimes should include personal, ethnic, and group crimes as well as charges of corruption. The mandate should include not only Iraqis but also personnel for the occupation forces (US, UK, etc.) and all other people who committed crimes against Iraqis. And that also should end all Debaathification Program.
The Iraqi people through a single administrative authority own Iraq's natural resources. All revenues will be distributed in affair manner to assist in health, education, welfare, social development, and the development arts and culture across Iraq.
We are calling for the establishment of the Iraq Reconstruction and Development International Bank to support a serious transparent program of accelerated reconstruction. The US, UK, and other who participated in the occupation should make the major contributions to the capital of the Bank and a portion of the annual revenues from Iraqi oil.

Thank you for your involvement and support,

Future of Iraq Discussion Group

Monday, March 16, 2009

Iraq Future: More Discussions

Dear Haifa and Mundher,

I thank you, both, for your thoughtful response. I appreciate the feedback I have been receiving from many Iraqis and I assure you that the Future of Iraq Discussion Group will discuss these important responses and will refine the statement to reflect the consensus of the group.

Preface

I have to confess that the language of the statement is cautious and possibly represents a compromise between the pressing need to influence the debate in the US towards a more progressive position that supports Iraqi interests and the language necessary to support to the more principled positions of progressive Iraqis.

Quotation on: US Culpability and the Iraqi Resistance

For the purpose of clarity, and responding to your points, I have included your text in red characters with quotations.

"I write to you personally about basic issues in the statement. The details, and even the steps suggested may be good, but the frame is not.

"It seems to us, Haifa and I, that in avoiding fundamental issues, probably in the desire to engage the mainstream politics is more harmful than not. Fundamentals such as a) the culpability of the US occupation in destroying the state, and fragmenting society and b) the absolute need to engage the legitimate Iraqi armed resistance as the main force for correction. They claim to consider engaging the Taliban, why not the Iraqi resistance?"

US Culpability

I fully agree that the US occupation of Iraq is fully culpable "in destroying the state, and fragmenting society". I add that the US occupation and its allies promoted, supported, and leveraged sectarianism in Iraq as in instrument of policy to subdue Iraq and to split the resistance of its people. The Iraqi people, in my view, have absolute legitimate right to resist, by all necessary means, the occupation, including armed resistance, political means, cultural means, civic disobedience, passive resistance, and peaceful means of protest.

In my mind, there is no obstacle what so ever for the US to engage the Iraqi resistance in direct and full negotiations. Item five of the proposals to the US, in the statement, states, "Open dialogue with all Iraqi political forces, on non-sectarian basis, with the intention of securing their participation and support for a safe and open process of election."

I suppose we could strengthen this by making more explicit to include the armed resistance.

Iraqi Armed Resistance

There is an issue here that, I hope you and other Iraqi colleagues could help me resolve. Which party on the resistance side politically represents the collective anti-occupation forces? We spent a lot of time discussing this dimension and failing to have specific information from a specific side or few sides, it will weaken the statement to demand, generically, all that the US negotiate with the "Iraqi Resistance". I agree that current formulation is also weak but leaves the door open for more specificity.

Hence, one thing is necessary and urgent that we work together to identify a political, or few political, parties that have the following characteristics:

A) They represent a movement against the occupation. B) They have a political and/or military presence in Iraq. C) They have an identifiable political arm that can engage in meaningful negotiations. D) They are not Al-Qaida.

These characteristics are necessary conditions to present to the World, including the US, a party that we can identify as representing the alternative future of Iraq. That places an urgency for a front of national unity composed of armed and political resistance groups to emerge to represent itself as a legitimate party, if not, the legitimate party, for the people of Iraq.

I believe that the US plan to occupy, pacify, and transform Iraq to a colony failed, specifically because of the valiant resistance and the sacrifices of the Iraqi people. The challenge now is to cultivate that success and crystallize a formal political representation in the name of the Iraqi people. It is impossible to reap the benefits of this victory or to leverage it for a better future of Iraq without the maturation of a national front. Here lies the difference with the Taliban.

The question I have, which I have asked many times from many Iraqis, who are the party or parties that politically and formally is willing to speak from the perspective of the resistance on behalf of the people of Iraq? We need to respond to this question, with urgency, to assure the Iraqi people and to establish the political necessity for regional and world powers to deal with this reality.

Demands from the US

The US is fully culpable for the destruction of Iraq and hence the US has responsibilities to support the effort of the Iraq people to rebuild their country. It may be important to state that the US is culpable. Instead, the team felt we should focus what we are asking the US to do now because it is culpable. We believe that the following demands are an expression of holding the US culpable:

Open unconditional discussions with all Iraqi forces, in this context, including the Iraqi resistance;
Accelerate the withdrawal of all US forces and leave no bases in Iraq; and,
Continue to assume responsibility to support the rebuilding of Iraq and relieving it of its debt.
Respect the will of Iraqi people once an acceptable process with the participation of the Iraqi resistance is reached.
Support the revisions of the Constitution based on D above
Support, facilitate, and recognize the authority of an independent, international Truth, Accountability, and Justice Commission to adjudicate all those suspected of all crimes, against humanity, corruption, merchants of children, etc. of both Iraqis and US personnel

Again, kindly suggest other demands that we may have overlooked.

The Obama Policy

"The statement seems not to challenge the deliberately vague policies, continuation of Bush's era, which aim for a neo-colonial set up as a solution for the failed American project. These are not a matter of words or tactics but of basics."

The Obama, to date, is not only "deliberately vague policies, continuation of Bush's era, which aim for a neo-colonial set up as a solution for the failed American project" but in addition it is a compromise among forces A & B that I described in my response to Sami Ramadani (please see addendum to the message for elaborations on Forces A, B, and C).

I strongly believe that the mandate of the American people as represented by the Forces C agrees that "Iraq was a strategic blunder and an unjustified war. We [the US] should withdraw ASAP and let the Iraqis rule their lives. I believe that this broad majority, however, is not as well organized around this issue as indeed either Forces A and Forces B. We need to find a mechanism to mobilize them in the US."

The struggle to define the final US policy towards Iraq has just started. The factors that swing it away from a compromise position that ultimately is neo-colonial position are the following:

Strong mobilization, urgently, of the left and progressive forces particularly those that are already in Congress to pressure towards the demands I listed above. The US left has been always slow to move and fragmented, therefore, the mobilization is critical if we are to leverage this historic moment.
A strong united Iraqi national front that provides a political voice to the Iraqi resistance groups. This is essential to provide mobilization of forces in Iraq and to claim a legitimate place as a speaker for the future of Iraq. I must point out here that this is an Iraqi task not a US task.
Regional mobilization of states that can stand-up and speak on half and in support of the non-sectarian solution to Iraq political future and that can express political support to united Iraqi Front.

Without these three factors crystallizing very fast, today Obama's compromise with the Forces A and B will not only become permanent, but also will shift gradually towards Forces A. There are two critical windows; the first is today until about end of June. The second window is from now until the end of August 2010. If we succeed in mobilizing the three factors above such has to have showing in the first window, we open many doors for defeating the colonial program.

Without exaggerating the importance of the statement, it is a ferment to start that mobilization.

Iraq Salvation and Tactics

"In matters of tactics, Iraq's salvation would benefit from a spectrum of groups and moves, from the various forms of open resistance, to various forms of engaging the colonial project itself. But some of these may be more useful to the colonialists than to the 'natives'. An Iraqi-American group, or a Palestinian – American group is only worthwhile I it upholds the right to resistance, and call foremost or the US to engage the resistance. Reforming the current political process is only worthwhile if it charts its own demise through engaging the resistance and addressing the huge injustices."

There is no question that the team, and I believe very strongly in the right of the Iraqi people for resistance and fee self-determination. You are right in saying that "Reforming the current political process is only worthwhile if it charts its own demise through engaging the resistance and addressing the huge injustices." The reformation of political process is focused on the realizing the following dimensions:

A political dialogue with all Iraqi forces, particularly the Iraqi resistance, and one hopes most definitely with a united Iraqi National Front
A process that rejects sectarianism in favour of equality of citizenship in front the law and in opportunities, particularly equality of men and women, and equal access by all Iraqis to all government and security institutions based on credentials and love of service to Iraq and the Iraqi people
A process that leads to reformation of the Constitution
A process that leads to the end of the rule of the militias, all militias in what dress, name, or identification that they use
A process that will lead to the formulation of a strong unified Iraqi government based on professionalism, service, and non-sectarianism

"Irresponsible Withdrawal"

"A particularly jarring aspect is the stand towards 'irresponsible withdrawal', at the start of the Assessment section, which seems contrary to the accepted position of all the anti-occupation forces."

If the US is culpable, as we have argued above, then one thing we have to demand is that it acknowledges its culpability by meeting the demands we stated above, otherwise the demand to just withdraw and acknowledge you have made a mistake and leave the Iraqis alone is, in fact, relieving the US from any responsibility.

Hence, a "responsible withdrawal" means that not only that the US withdraws but it will also must meet the political demands and the functional demands of helping Iraq rebuild itself.

Thank you for your response,

With my best regards and in friendship,

Sami AlBanna

Appendix from my Message to Sami Ramadani, March 11, 2008

Extract from a message I sent to Sami Ramadani on March 11, 2009

Let me comment on: "My immediate and biggest initial concern, however, is centered on the question of withdrawal of the occupation forces and the implicit suggestion in the document that a short term continuation of the US-led occupation is beneficial to Iraq."

I am concerned that the document is projecting that image, because non of this that had worked with me believe that is true. Let me explain the context:

1. None my Iraqi colleagues in the team believe that the occupation was legitimate, justified, good for Iraq, or needed to security. I am sorry that the text seems to be projecting a different sense. The team and I will review more closely to make sure that this point is not missed. I am also concerned that another point seems to have been missed which is we all believe that the US carries a moral and legal responsibility for the destruction of Iraq and has a responsibility to support the rebuilding of Iraq.

2. President Obama, using the SOFA, have declared a withdrawal of "US combat troops" by August 2010. He suggested the US will keep 35K-50K troops from August 2010 through December 2011 and I should add, though this was not in his statement, that the US will have to keep roughly 75K-100K of the mercenary and sub-contractors supporting the US presence.

3. President Obama also declared that we will respect the SOFA terms and withdraw all US forces by December 2011.

4. The fact is both declarations by the President are a compromise between two of the three currents prevailing on the debate in Washington. Let me sketch the analysis that the team believes is the situation. The three Forces aligned around the question of withdrawal are:

Forces A) The neo-con and their close allies forces that remain entrenched and formidable in the institutions of the US government and the forest of think tanks and institutes--- i.e. the intellectual sourcing pipeline of the US government--- that surround it in the US, in spite of the election defeat last November.

The position of Forces A remains fixated around using US military power not only to subdue Iraq, but if possible to extend that to subdue Iran and Syria and the Palestinian etc. In other words, they are against the withdrawal from Iraq, and they see Iraq as a prize that the US should retain and that the US should continue to have major bases "forever" in Iraq. This group further dreams that victory has been achieved and their real program of changing the Middle East is now more possible than 2003.

Forces B) The professional institutional government, particularly the national security apparatus that includes the Armed Forces, Intelligence Agencies, the State Department, and many of the intellectuals feed surrounding the permanent government.

This trend is against the total withdrawal, but accepts to a significant draw down, and believe that the SFA provides a mechanism that can be activated to draft a new SOFA after the Nov 2010 mid-term elections. This logic states that the Democrats can claim that they have been successful implemented the promise of President Obama to withdraw in 16 months, in his speech, he is doing it in 18 months, which a couple of months before that mid-term elections. In short, in spite of President Obama to completely withdraw from Iraq by December 2011, the issue is open.

Forces A and B are aligned now on this issue and they both see there will be an opportunity to revise the total withdrawal decision after the mid-term Nov 2010 elections. They particularly feel that there are a number of Iraqi parties that are demanding that the US stays like the Kurdish parties, the Al-Hakim group, and, I suspect even Al-Hashimi Sunni group. I also suspect that Al-Maliki, ultimately, will not oppose the permanent stay of US forces, but now he is milking the strong Iraqi national sentiments for the withdrawal of all foreign forces.

Forces C) I think this a strong majority in the US electorate with very strong representation in Congress after the Nov 2008 elections, particularly in the House, where there is a near majority in favor of total immediate withdrawal. I also think that President Obama started his electoral campaign being strongly in this camp. Now he has to deal with mostly Forces A and B on a daily basis, and given the declining economic conditions whereby he has to relay mostly on the permanent government establishment to carry forward his plans, he had to compromise and the compromise is really a delay until after August 2010.

The position here is simple. Iraq was a strategic blunder and an unjustified war. We should withdraw ASAP and let the Iraqis rule their lives. I believe that this broad majority, however, is not as well organized around this issue as indeed either Forces A and Forces B. We need to find a mechanism to mobilize them in the US.

5. Our attempt is to encourage Forces C to keep the pressure on the administration, otherwise we will meet a condition by Sept 2010 whereby the forces will be aligned to extend the withdrawal. Our attempt also is to call on the Iraqi forces to explore ways of non-sectarian conciliation in the interest of evolving toward some peaceful resolution. The chances are today without such a reconciliation that we will face an escalating state of violence in 2010, particularly after Nov 2010, which will provide justifications for Forces A and B to extend the occupation.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Position Paper on the Future of Iraq

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Sami AlBanna <sami.albanna@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 11, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Subject: {Iraq Future:95} Re: Position Paper on the Future of Iraq
To: sami.ramadani@londonmet.ac.uk
Cc: EPJF <EPJF@googlegroups.com>, iraqfuture <iraqfuture@googlegroups.com>

Dear Sami,

Thank you very much for your thoughtful remarks which will definitely help our small group here in DC to improve the content of the statement. I concede that in our rush to get this statement out early to try to influence the debate in Washington, we might have missed or miss-represented some ideas. That is why our small group, here is happy to learn from thoughtful feedback, such as the one you provided, and improve the text going forward to ensure that a more balanced and more progressive solution to Iraq's future.

Let me comment on: "My immediate and biggest initial concern, however, is centered on the question of withdrawal of the occupation forces and the implicit suggestion in the document that a short term continuation of the US-led occupation is beneficial to Iraq."

I am concerned that the document is projecting that image, because non of this that had worked with me believe that is true. Let me explain the context:

1. None my Iraqi colleagues in the team believe that the occupation was legitimate, justified, good for Iraq, or needed to security. I am sorry that the text seems to be projecting a different sense. The team and I will review more closely to make sure that this point is not missed. I am also concerned that another point seems to have been missed which is we all believe that the US carries a moral and legal responsibility for the destruction of Iraq and has a responsibility to support the rebuilding of Iraq.

2. President Obama, using the SOFA, have declared a withdrawal of "US combat troops" by August 2010. He suggested the US will keep 35K-50K troops from August 2010 through December 2011 and I should add, though this was not in his statement, that the US will have to keep roughly 75K-100K of the mercenary and sub-contractors supporting the US presence.

3. President Obama also declared that we will respect the SOFA terms and withdraw all US forces by December 2011.

4. The fact is both declarations by the President are a compromise between two of the three currents prevailing on the debate in Washington. Let me sketch the analysis that the team believes is the situation. The three Forces aligned around the question of withdrawal are:

Forces A) The neo-con and their close allies forces that remain entrenched and formidable in the institutions of the US government and the forest of think tanks and institutes--- i.e. the intellectual sourcing pipeline of the US government--- that surround it in the US, in spite of the election defeat last November.

The position of forces A remain fixated around using US military power not only to subdue Iraq, but if possible to extend that to subdue Iran and Syria and the Palestinian etc., In other words, they are against the withdrawal from Iraq, and they see Iraq as a prize that should be retained and the US should continue to have major bases "forever" in Iraq. This group further dreams that victory has been achieved and their real program of changing the Middle East is now more possible than 2003.

Forces B) The professional institutional government, particularly the national security apparatus which includes the Armed Forces, Intelligence Agencies, the State Department, and many of the intellectuals feed surrounding the permanent government.

This trend is against the total withdrawal, but accepts to a significant draw down, and believe that the SFA provides a mechanism that can be activated to draft a new SOFA after the Nov 2010 mid-term elections. This logic states that the Democrats can claim that they have been successful implemented the promise of President Obama to withdraw in 16 months, in his speech, he is doing it in 18 months, which a couple of months before that mid-term elections. In short, in spite of President Obama to completely withdraw from Iraq by December 2011, the issue is open.

Forces A and Forces B are aligned now on this issue and they both see there will be an opportunity to revise the total withdrawal decision after the Nov 2010 elections, particularly they feel that there are a number of Iraqi parties that are demanding for the US to stay like the Kurdish parties, the Al-Hakim group, and, suspect even Al-Hashimi Sunni group. I also suspect that Al-Maliki, ultimately, will not oppose the permanent stay of US forces, but now he is milking the strong Iraqi national sentiments for the withdrawal of all foreign forces.

Forces C) I think this a strong majority in the US electorate with very strong representation in Congress after the Nov 2008 elections, particularly in the house where there is a near majority in favor of total immediate withdrawal. I also think that President Obama started his electoral campaign being strongly in this camp. Now he has to deal with mostly Forces A and B on a daily basis, and given the declining economic conditions whereby he has to relay mostly on the permanent government establishment to carry forward his plans, he had to compromise and the compromise is really a delay until after August 2010.

The position here is simple. Iraq was a strategic blunder and an unjustified war. We should withdraw ASAP and let the Iraqis rule their lives. I believe that this broad majority, however, is not as well organized around this issue as indeed either Forces A and Forces B. We need to find a mechanism to mobilize them in the US.

5. Our attempt is to encourage Forces C to keep the pressure on the administration, otherwise we will meet a condition by Sept 2010 whereby the forces will be aligned to extend the withdrawal. Our attempt also is to call on the Iraqi forces to explore ways of non-sectarian conciliation in the interest of evolving toward some peaceful resolution. The chances are today without such a reconciliation that we will face an escalating state of violence in 2010, particularly after Nov 2010, which will provide justifications for Forces A and B to extend the occupation.

Sami: I need to study your message more deeply because it has many valuable inputs to explore with my colleagues the ways to strengthen this document.

In friendship with deep appreciation,
Sami AlBanna

2009/3/11 Sami Ramadani <sami.ramadani@londonmet.ac.uk>

Dear Sami,

Many thanks for this and the effort you have been putting into the whole process of achieving consensus on Iraq and highlighting the plight of its long-suffering people.

The document deserves careful attention and consideration, which I will do during the coming days. Meanwhile, even a cursory reading reveals a mature approach to many of Iraq's seemingly insurmountable problems. Many of the proposals and recommendations are very sensible and realistic. My immediate and biggest initial concern, however, is centred on the question of withdrawal of the occupation forces and the implicit suggestion in the document that a short term continuation of the US-led occupation is beneficial to Iraq.

Thinking aloud: my starting point on post-occupation Iraq is anchored on the premise that non of Iraq's major problems and tragedies could be resolved or ameliorated without the immediate ending of the occupation and all its works. This does not mean that Iraq's problems will be resolved once the occupation ends, but it does mean that the Iraqi people could begin to try to resolve the myriad of complex problems facing them without the visible and invisible hands of the occupation.

The military occupation has immeasurably strengthened US influence and varied forms of presence at all levels in Iraqi society. The biggest embassy in the world, for example, needs to be shut down. If the US is willing to respect the independence and sovereignty of Iraq, then a modest embassy similar to many others is more than sufficient. War reparations are also due. The TAJ should also look into the US-led war crimes and the war of aggression itself. The proposed oil law should be scrapped...

The occupation and US-led presence in Iraq is the poison that has replaced and added to the Saddamist poison inflicting in Iraq's social, political and economic life and fabric. The poison needs to be removed first.

Reading the above I see that the language is emotive. But whatever the form of words, the meaning is all important in my view.

Thanks again for shepherding this effort and debate.

Best,
Sami

**************************************************
Sami Ramadani,
Department of Applied Social Sciences,
London Metropolitan University, City Campus,
Old Castle Street, London, E1 7NT

Tel: 020 7320 1280
Fax: 020 7320 1034
Email: Sami.Ramadani@londonmet.ac.uk
**************************************************

Sami AlBanna wrote:
Please find attached a statement on the Future of Iraq developed by a group of Iraqis and Iraqi-Americans living in the Washington, DC area.

The statement is open for evolution based on feedback and discussions. Your feedback will be appreciated.
Sami AlBanna