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Saturday, May 16, 2009

Position Paper on the Future of Iraq (20090516)

Towards a Unified Peaceful Non-Sectarian Democratic Iraq

May 2009

Introduction

We, the undersigned, are concerned Iraqis, living in Iraq and outside Iraq, men and women, professionals and intellectuals, who recognize that a semblance of progress towards peace and stability has been made in our beloved Iraq, the cradle of human civilization. However, the path towards realizing a sustainable state of stability, justice, peace, and democracy remains long and torturous, and the challenges are immense. We support the unconditional withdrawal of all foreign troops and presence from Iraq, and we support the goal of President Barak Obama to remove all US troops and bases from Iraq by Dec. 2011. We strongly believe that Iraq must have full sovereignty as a unified democratic non--sectarian state with equal rights and justice to all of its citizens, irrespective of creed, ethnic origin, belief, gender, or tribal affiliation and without the presence of any foreign military forces.

Concerns Based on Facts on the Ground

In the past few months, there has been some progress on a number of fronts, including security and local provincial elections. However, the political process in Iraq is still blocked by disagreements and opposing views that form key obstacles in achieving any progress towards a safer, more stable, and democratic Iraq. Therefore, we are concerned that the assessments of the progress made by the media, the Iraqi government and the US administration officials have been substantially overstated and that the facts on the ground in Iraq remain alarming and potentially devastating. Here are few of these facts:

  • The forces of divisiveness, sectarianism, and fragmentation remain strong and active throughout Iraq. These forces are embedded into the system of governance established after occupation.
  • The structure of most of the institutions of the Iraqi government, including the civil service, security, army and police forces, remains largely sectarian. These institutions are exercising repressive power against groups of different political or sectarian persuasion;
  • Sectarian groups retain active and visible militias throughout Iraq, further weakening the roles of the Iraqi government and civic society;
  • The existence of these militias is forcing and encouraging other groups to explore the formation of their own private militias, and, hence, accelerating the trend towards more divisiveness, renewed insurgency and prospects of wider warfare.
  • The increasing tension between the Central Government and Kurdistan Regional Government over the so–called "disputed area", the ownership and management of oil resources, and the sharing of financial revenues is threatening, at any moment, the breakout of Arab-Kurdish violence.
  • The process of political reconciliation on a non-sectarian basis is stalled. It is a fact that several key disputed issues, such as the oil revenues, the city of Kirkuk, and the militias, remain unresolved, although negotiations have been ongoing since 2003 to resolve them. It is also a fact that the flawed and outdated Iraqi constitution remains in effect, with no credible hope of reform. Despite promises of reform and amendment, the constitution has not been modified, since it was passed through a referendum in October 2005.
  • Transparency International has classified Iraq, for the past three years, as one of the most corrupt states in the world. Tens of billions of US dollars have been spent to reconstruct the infrastructure, schools and health systems, since 2003. Nevertheless, the levels of these services remain lower than pre-2003 levels and many more billions have disappeared and not been accounted for.
  • The environment of Iraq is in a state of disaster. Depleted Uranium, used by US forces, pollutes most of the country with radiation with devastating consequences to public health.
  • The UN reports: "The economy is unable to provide enough work for 28% of the labor force … Unemployment is concentrated and rising among younger men … Only 17% of Iraqi women participate in the labour force." (SEE: UN OCHA (Jan. 2009). Iraq Labour Force Analysis 2003-2008.)
  • We note with horror that since the illegal invasion of Iraq six years ago, today we have the following demographic and social facts:
  • Estimates put the number of civilian Iraqis who perished by violence anywhere between DOD's estimate of 100,000 and the Lancet field report of roughly 1.5 million.

  • "UNHCR estimates more than 4.7 million Iraqis have left their homes, many in dire need of humanitarian care. Of these, more than 2.7 million Iraqis are displaced internally, while more than 2 million have fled to neighboring states, particularly Syria and Jordan. Many were displaced prior to 2003, but the largest number has fled since. In 2006, Iraqis became the leading nationality-seeking asylum in Europe."



  • Iraq's cherished minorities (such as the Mandaneans, Assyrians, Chaldeans and the Yazidis) with their numerous rich cultural diversity and contributions to Iraq's well-being, are now nearly extinct. The process of liquidation of these minorities continues unabated. (SEE: Lamani (Jan. 2009). Minorities in Iraq: The Other Victims. CIGI Report.)


  • The status of Iraqi women, in law and in public practices, has regressed to a level far below the status they had achieved in the fifty years prior to the occupation.


  • Iraq has more than a million widows and more than 3 million, and some source quote 5 million, orphans;


  • The process of assassination and intimidation of Iraqi intellectuals continues unabated. Thousands of Iraq's outstanding intellectuals, professionals, academics, and scientists have been assassinated and are continuing to be assassinated. Tens of thousands have been forced to flee Iraq and become refuges. Some estimates place the loss of doctors after 2003, due to assassinations and forced emigration, at more than 70%.


These facts are but a short list of the highlights of the extensive destruction caused, directly or indirectly, by six years of occupation, sectarian policies, unchecked rampage of armed criminal gangs, and rampant corruption. We recognize that many of these ills started before the 2003 invasion because of the dictatorship and the inhuman sanctions imposed on Iraq. However, these ills reached genocidal proportions because of the illegal invasion, the brutal occupation, sectarianism, poor constitution, and the lack of effective Iraqi leadership.



Assessment Based on the Concerns

The concerns above - the fundamental rift in Kurdish-Arab relations, the on-going sectarian policies, and other more disturbing facts - clearly lead us to believe that an irresponsible withdrawal of foreign forces will push Iraq toward greater conflict and more dire conditions. The escalation of such conflict will very likely engulf not only Iraq but also the whole Middle East in local warfare, instability, and destruction, endangering, in the process, far more than just Iraq security and stability.


On the other hand, any plan to keep US and foreign forces in Iraq beyond December 2011 will definitely act as a trigger to a broader and more entrenched resistance to this extended foreign occupation. Such a development will not only engulf Iraq in more violence and instability, it will lead to the resurgence of a more viscous insurgency and accelerate instability and war in the whole Middle East region.


Our assessment is that if the US continues with the current sense of "victory is at-hand," and support to the current government "no-matter what", the likely outcome will produce one of two equally undesirable scenarios:


  1. An irresponsible withdrawal leaving chaos and possibly leading to civil war, or


  1. An extension of the occupation beyond December 2011 leading to a resurgence of insurgency and increasing violence.


A 'responsible withdrawal' is a withdrawal plan that returns sovereignty to the Iraqi people and respects their needs, requirements, and human rights,, including their right of self-determination. It also supports all efforts at political reconciliation. Such plans will have to include a handing over of power to a credible democratically elected Iraqi government.


The future of the World's peace, security, and prosperity depends on the realization, as soon as possible, of a sustainable just Middle East peace. Many factors and players enter the equation of achieving Middle Eastern peace. Among them is the necessary condition that a credible and legitimate democratic government in Baghdad is a party to such peace.


The coming nine months, building up to the Iraqi parliamentary elections, are critical to producing a more desirable outcome for the Iraqi people, and for peace and justice in the Middle East.


The Desired Future of Iraq

We call on the US, the neighbors of Iraq, the Arab countries, the other countries of the Middle East, and the numerous interested international parties to respect and support the vision of the Iraqi people of their desired future, including:


1. A unified non-sectarian democratic Iraq with a strong sovereign national government, bounded by the rule of law and democratic checks and balances – a government strongly desired by Iraqis as the last elections indicate and as evidenced by numerous field studies. Federalism as defined in the current Constitution and implemented has become a euphemism for divisiveness, fragmentation and dissonance. Federalism or other forms of governance in the context of the Iraqi people exercising its free will of self-determination are acceptable provided it leads to peaceful coexistence and the development of the whole country. Many developed nations are 'unified' and enjoy a well-balanced distribution and sharing of power.


2. New Constitution: An urgently needed new Constitution, or an evolved one, that represents the will of the Iraqi people-- all of the Iraqi people-- to establish a more balanced non-sectarian, legal framework that emphasizes the principles of equal citizenship, social justice and the protection of the rights of women, disadvantaged, and minorities;


3. Citizenship: An Iraqi state in which Iraqi citizens, irrespective of gender, creed, ethnicity, or belief, are equal in their citizenship and have equal rights before fair, just and enforceable laws. Protection of the laws must unequivocally guarantee the rights of freedom of speech, assembly, petition of their government, and protection for the rights of all minorities, political, ethnic, gender, or religion. Citizenship, not members of a sect, ethnic group, or a tribe, is the necessary pillar for building a viable democracy;


4. Minorities: An Iraqi state that upholds the rights of all ethnic and national groups throughout Iraq to live and develop in peace, and to celebrate their own history, language, and culture;


5. Political Process: An Iraqi state that ensures a fair, transparent and accountable political process for all Iraqis and safeguards all citizens from the tyranny of the rule of militias and armed gangs;


6. Natural Resources: An Iraqi state in which the ownership of natural resources, including oil and gas, remains centralized and under public jurisdiction and administration, and whose returns will be used equitably to serve the interests of all the Iraqi people in order to build prosperity for all.


Recommendations

To the Iraqi Political Forces

We recommend that the Iraqi Government, Iraqi political parties, and Iraqi forces of resistance accept and act faithfully to realize the following:


1. Strong National Government: The Iraqi political groups must commit to the building of a strong national government in Baghdad dedicated to the success of a unified democratic Iraq. All these efforts must take place within the confines of the democratic controls of transparency, non-sectarianism, ethnic equality, and open participation by all Iraqi citizens;


2. Non-Sectarian Professional Government: The institutions of the government - including the civil service, law enforcement, army, security, and diplomatic services - must be built on the principles of service, professionalism, and non-political meddling, and must be devoid of sectarianism;


3. Political Reconciliation: A more open and participatory national political dialogue and a concomitant electoral process of reform must be urgently developed – one where all parties and individuals are allowed to freely and safely participate in the national debate leading up to the national elections in December 2009. This dialogue should lead to internationally supervised free and open elections -- with the assistance of the UN, Carter center, and other similarly reputable organizations--- and an open process to reform of the Constitution immediately after the newly-elected National Assembly takes office in early 2010;


4. Social Reconciliation: The Debaathification program, and its current sequel, must end immediately and be replaced with a newly established and independent Truth, Accountability and Reconciliation (TAR) Commission of international jurists of trust and creditability. The Commission should be formed independent of the Iraqi Government or any of the political parties, but within the confines of Iraqi sovereignty. Its purpose would be to allow people to air in public their grievances and confront their abusers on matters pertaining to


  • All crimes committed against Iraqis and against humanity by any Iraqi or foreign persons, including US citizens, from the current and previous regimes, whether they were officials or independent operators;


  • All corruption and theft of public funds;


  • Acts of genocide, ethnic cleansing, or sectarian cleansing.


5. Sovereignty: All parties must commit to the end of foreign meddling, intervention, and to the withdrawal of all non-Iraqi bases and forces;


6. Refugees: The Iraqi Government must assume full responsibility for the well-being and the resettlement of displaced Iraqis and refugees.


To the United States

It is in the United States' interest to seek peace throughout the Middle East (including the peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict) and to see a stable partner for peace emerging in Baghdad. Supporting non-sectarian political reforms in Iraq will shorten the need for the presence of United States' armed forces in Iraq. Billions of dollars, now directed at sustaining the mission in Iraq, will be saved and redirected towards the United States' domestic needs.


All alternative scenarios of continuing the occupation or waiting for the current set-up in Baghdad to become strong and entrenched around a platform of sectarian and ethnic divisiveness will invariably lead to resurgence of a more radical resistance and a more rapid destabilization of the region.


The United States must recognize its culpability in destroying the fabric of Iraqi society – a result of its strategic blunder in illegally invading and occupying Iraq. It must faithfully implement the recommendations below to ensure that Iraq achieves social, political, and economic progress. In short, the US should adhere faithfully to the of all foreign forces and conduct a responsible withdrawal that leads to a non-sectarian political conciliation by faithfully implementing the recommendations below:


1. Withdrawal: Commit to the withdrawal of all forces and all bases, as President Obama stated in his Feb 27, 2009 speech. Consider opportunities to accelerate that withdrawal and returning full sovereignty to Iraq as soon as possible.


2. Support Iraqi Real Sovereignty: Continue, unequivocally, to support all institution building in Iraq based on a non-sectarian platform similar to the position taken by President Obama concerning rebuilding of the Iraqi Armed Forces.


3. Respect: Respect the right of the Iraqi people to choose their leaders and their laws, irrespective of the outcome. No "Hamas treatment";


4. Social & Economic Support: Commit to support, financially and politically, the reconstruction of Iraq; over a minimum of ten years period;


5. Open Dialogue: Conduct an open dialogue with all Iraqi nationalist and resistance forces;


6. International: Use the influence of the US to engage regional and international powers supporting the sovereignty of Iraq and will of the Iraqi people;


7. Debt: Take a lead role in assisting Iraq in eliminating its current level of debt and establishing an International Bank for the Reconstruction of Iraq that focuses on loaning money for development of infrastructure, health, education, welfare, and other projects to close the social and economic gap across all Iraq.


8. Truth and Reconciliation (TRC) Commission: Support the formation of and participate with Iraqis in establishing a Truth and Reconciliation (TAR) Commission of international jurists of trust and creditability.


Regional and International Interested Parties

We call on the regional and international parties, particularly countries bordering Iraq, to:


  • Commit to and facilitate the building of a strong unified national government in Baghdad within a democratic non-sectarian state,


  • Actively support the efforts of international agencies to sustain and support the relocation of Iraqi refugees,


  • Respect the will of the Iraqi people, expressed through free elections,


  • End the unjust debt imposed on Iraq for the past 25 years,


  • Facilitate and participate in the effort to reconstruct Iraq to the interest of the Iraqi people.



Sponsor's Signatures

We support the substance and the approach of this Position Paper on Iraq and call on Iraqis of good will to support it and consider it in the discourse for a better future of Iraq.


Name

Profession

Address

E-Mail

Comments

Future of Iraq Discussion Group

See end note about the Group Description

Washington, DC



Dr. Sami J. AlBanna

Architect, Advanced Systems

Bethesda, MD

Sami.albanna@gmail.com


Dr. Tareq Ismael

Professor of Political Science

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

tismael@ucalgary.ca


Mr. Omar Fekeiki

Journalist

Washington, DC

omarfekeiki@yahoo.com


Mr. Naseer Nouri

Aircraft Engineer & Pilot

Washington, DC

naseernouri@gmail.com













This is a short list of sponsors. We are publishing the document for distribution while awaiting other sponsors approvals to use their names. We will republish the Paper, without change to content, once we receive the authorization of these colleagues.

End Notes